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Publications | Dennis Shen

SELECT LSE ARTICLES

How rating agencies could support African governments in overcoming debt crises

On the Africa at LSE Blog, co-authored with Moritz Kraemer. Published: July 4, 2022.

Dennis Y. Shen's Publications

Image source: Public Domain

Why isn’t there more alarm about the gerrymandering of US presidencies?

For the LSE's School of Public Policy Blog. Published: November 29, 2019.

A rise in narcissism could be one of the main causes of America’s political and economic crises

For the LSE US Centre. Published on June 28, 2017.

narcissus-caravaggio-1594-96-small.webp

Caravaggio (1571–1610), Narcissus. Galleria Nazionale d'Arte Antica, Rome.
GALLERIA NAZIONALE D'ARTE ANTICA, ROMA.

Image source: Newsweek

The only way to halt the rise of demagoguery may be to reform globalization

For the LSE US Centre. Published on February 16, 2017.

Central banks are facing a crisis of confidence – it’s time to reinvent global monetary policy

On LSE European Politics and Policy. Published: October 6, 2016.

Publications: Dennis Shen

RESEARCH at SCOPE RATINGS

RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS:

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  1. 'Why Morocco is emerging stronger than South Africa from recent crises: Growth, reform help explain divergent rating trajectories', co-authored, 24 January 2024.

  2. 'Sovereign Outlook 2024: Soft economic landing and turn of the global rate cycle balance fiscal and geopolitical risks for sovereigns', co-authored, 15 December 2023.

  3. 'Sovereign Mid-Year 2023 Outlook: Economic slowdown, challenging fiscal dynamics and high interest rates underpin negative outlook for sovereign ratings', co-authored, 18 July 2023.

  4. 'Debt-ceiling crisis a core risk to credit ratings of US government', 17 February 2023.

  5. 'Central and Eastern Europe Sovereign Outlook 2023: Growth falters amid war, higher cost of debt, energy security risk', co-authored, 15 December 2022.

  6. 'Sovereign Outlook 2023: Sharp economic slowdown, challenging fiscal dynamics, high inflation and rising rates underpin divergence in sovereign ratings', co-authored, 12 December 2022.

  7. 'July 2022 Central and Eastern Europe Mid-Year Sovereign Outlook', co-authored, 26 July 2022.

  8. 'July 2022 Sovereign Mid-Year Outlook: Recovery slowdown, high inflation and rising rates present divergence in sovereign ratings and outlooks', co-authored, 18 July 2022.

  9. '2022 Central and Eastern Europe Sovereign Outlook: Sound albeit uneven growth ahead but risks to the region are mounting', co-authored, December 14, 2021.

  10. '2022 Sovereign Outlook: An uneven global recovery amid Covid-19, inflation and monetary tightening challenges sovereign outlook', co-authored, December 7, 2021.

  11. '2021 External Vulnerability and Resilience rankings: Risks for emerging economies amid rising inflation, rates', co-authored, November 8, 2021.

  12. 'June 2021 Central and Eastern Europe Interim Sovereign Outlook: Sustained recovery to pre-crisis levels by 2022, but at varying speeds', co-authored, June 30, 2021.

  13. 'June 2021 Interim Sovereign Outlook: A robust yet uneven global recovery continues, with diverging sovereign ratings implications', co-authored, June 17, 2021.

  14. 'Nordic sovereigns: strong environmental policies support high credit ratings', co-authored, May 17, 2021.

  15. 'Brexit trade agreement avoids no-deal, but disruptions and persistent uncertainty weaken UK outlook', January 7, 2021.

  16. '2021 Central and Eastern Europe Sovereign Outlook: The region’s economic recovery anchored by monetary, fiscal stimulus, but rising debt, external risks are concerns in some countries', co-authored, December 17, 2020.

  17. '2021 Sovereign Outlook: Recovery at last, with monetary and fiscal frameworks in transition, and diverging sovereign rating implications', co-authored, December 9, 2020.

  18. 'Africa’s solvency crisis: China’s participation in G20 debt relief a sign of multilateralism, but a “DSSI+” framework is required', co-authored, November 16, 2020.

  19. 'Q4 2020 Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Sovereign Update: CEE recovery from the Covid-19 crisis to be gradual and uneven amid significant virus resurgence in Q4', co-authored, October 19, 2020.

  20. 'Q4 2020 Sovereign Update: A gradual and uneven global recovery faces challenges in Q4 2020 and 2021, with diverging sovereign ratings implications', co-authored, October 12, 2020.

  21. 'African fiscal vulnerabilities, effects of 2020 global support initiatives and impact on sovereign creditworthiness', co-authored, September 3, 2020.

  22. 'Q3 2020 Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Sovereign Update: Rebound has begun, but full recovery only after 2021', co-authored, July 15, 2020.

  23. 'Q3 2020 Sovereign Update: Covid-19 pandemic’s economic impact: gradual and uneven global recovery with significant risks still on the horizon', co-authored, July 8, 2020.

  24. 'Nordic economies: Covid-19 impairs 2020 growth but public debt levels manageable', co-authored, June 25, 2020.

  25. 'Italy: debt sustainability hinges on ECB policy as Covid-19 crisis results in rise in debt and funding needs', co-authored, May 8, 2020.

  26. 'Five charts to explain Turkey’s major external sector vulnerabilities in 2020', co-authored, May 5, 2020.

  27. 'Q2 2020 Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Sovereign Update', co-authored, April 27, 2020.

  28. '2020 External Vulnerability and Resilience rankings for 63 countries: Covid-19 Crisis update', co-authored, April 21, 2020.

  29. 'Q2 2020 Sovereign Update: Covid-19 pandemic’s economic impact: significant risk as the world economy falls into recession', co-authored, April 3, 2020.

  30. 'Special Comment: Covid-19 Risks and Impact on the 2020 Global Outlook', March 13, 2020.

  31. 'EU fiscal risk assessment: Italy, Spain, Greece rank among most fragile; Belgium, France vulnerable', co-authored, February 7, 2020.

  32. 'Italy revisits fiscal reform: the tax-wedge challenge in five charts', co-authored, January 9, 2020.

  33. 'CEE 2020 Sovereign Outlook: subdued regional growth trends amid greater economic resilience', co-authored with the Scope Public Finance team, December 10, 2019.

  34. 'Sovereign Outlook 2020: slow growth, political uncertainty, rising debt add pressure on policymakers', co-authored with the Scope Public Finance team, December 2, 2019.

  35. 'Q4 sovereign update: amid weak growth, policy focus shifts from central banks to governments', co-authored with the Scope Public Finance team, October 1, 2019.

  36. 'Q3 sovereign update: monetary easing supports growth outlook, challenged by fiscal, trade policy', co-authored with the Scope Public Finance team, July 1, 2019.

  37. 'Q2 Sovereign Update: Slower growth, political uncertainty mitigated by easier monetary policy', co-authored with the Scope Public Finance team, April 4, 2019.

  38. 'Brexit: Uncertainty weighs on UK ratings, while risks to Ireland’s and the EU’s ratings more limited', co-authored, March 15, 2019.

  39. 'Brexit Outlook: Chronic uncertainty to endure as UK teeters between soft Brexit and no Brexit', January 8, 2019.

  40. 'External risk and trade wars: Scope presents dual frameworks to capture sovereign external risks', co-authored, December 13, 2018.

  41. 'Sovereign Outlook 2019: Multiple stress factors set to weigh on growth and sovereign risk', co-authored with the Scope Public Finance team, November 29, 2018.

  42. 'Q4 Sovereign Update: Three populist threats aggravating downside risks to outlook', co-authored with the Scope Public Finance team, October 8, 2018.

  43. 'Scope expects UK to avoid no-deal Brexit, but high economic uncertainty underscores Negative Outlook', August 27, 2018.

  44. 'Quarterly Update: Outlook for euro area remains constructive, despite growing protectionism risk', co-authored with the Scope Public Finance team, July 2, 2018.

  45. 'Risks abound for the overheated Nordic housing market, but no crisis', co-authored, April 26, 2018.

  46. 'Quarterly Update: Five Risks to the European and Global Outlook', co-authored with the Scope Public Finance team, April 12, 2018.

  47. 'Scope welcomes European Commission’s Action Plan on sustainable finance', co-authored, March 22, 2018.

  48. 'Prolonged Brexit uncertainty leaves the UK facing more sluggish economic growth', March 20, 2018.

  49. 'Election Risk to Reforms Clouds Italian Sovereign Outlook', co-authored, February 5, 2018.

  50. 'Four reasons why Russia is investment grade and Turkey is not', co-authored, January 19, 2018.

  51. 'Special comment: Risks to Brexit trade talks pronounced as UK, EU approach next phase', December 15, 2017.

  52. 'Public Finance Outlook 2018: Europe is resilient but global risks are rising', co-authored with the Scope Public Finance team, November 23, 2017.

  53. 'Special comment: China’s sovereign ratings hinge on deleveraging initiatives', November 15, 2017.

  54. 'Special comment: Catalonia to remain in Spain despite referendum, but tensions escalate', co-authored, October 6, 2017.

  55. 'Special comment: Merkel’s government to push ahead, despite weakened authority', co-authored, September 27, 2017.

  56. 'Special comment – German elections: low risk event but important for reform prospects in Europe', co-authored, September 12, 2017.

  57. 'Special comment: Uncertainties around Brexit challenge UK credit outlook', co-authored, August 24, 2017.

For additional research at Scope, as well as commentaries and rating announcements I have worked on, please visit the Scope website.

LSE ARTICLES (LISTING)

BLOG ARTICLES:

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  1. 'For the US government, debt-ceiling crises are both costly and avoidable.' LSE US Politics and Policy, March 16, 2023.

  2. 'How rating agencies could support African governments in overcoming debt crises', co-authored, Africa at LSE Blog, July 4, 2022.

  3. 'Brexit remains far from over: the “slow burn” of EU-exit will stress the British economy long term', LSE Brexit Blog, January 19, 2021.

  4. 'Why Isn’t There More Alarm About the Gerrymandering of US Presidencies?', LSE School of Public Policy Blog, November 29, 2019.

  5. 'Outlook for Italy: Fiscal policy and instability in the government remain key sources of risk', LSE European Politics and Policy, June 27, 2019.

  6. '29 March: Brexit in name only or an Article 50 extension are on the cards​', LSE Brexit Blog, January 11, 2019.

  7. 'Ultimately, public opinion is unlikely to tolerate a hard Brexit', LSE Brexit Blog, December 5, 2017.

  8. 'A rise in narcissism could be one of the main causes of America’s political and economic crises', LSE US Politics and Policy (reposted on Newsweek; cited by RealClearScience), June 28, 2017.

  9. 'The Only Way to Halt the Rise of Demagoguery May Be to Reform Globalization', LSE US Politics and Policy, February 16, 2017.

  10. 'Central Banks Are Facing a Crisis of Confidence – It’s Time to Reinvent Global Monetary Policy', LSE European Politics and Policy (reposted on the Global Policy Journal Blog), October 6, 2016.

  11. 'Recap: Why Brexit Still Faces Extraordinary Challenges', LSE British Politics and Policy, September 12, 2016.

  12. 'Europe’s Recent Attacks Underline the Need for a New Strategy to Combat Terrorism', LSE European Politics and Policy, July 26, 2016.

  13. 'The Cost of Wealth Inequality in Higher Education', LSE British Politics and Policy, September 9, 2013.

  14. 'Book Review: Intelligent Governance for the 21st Century', LSE Review of Books, March 9, 2013.

JOURNAL PUBLICATIONS:

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  1. 'Capitalism, Corporatocracy and Financialization: Imbalances in the American Political Economy', The Public Sphere Journal, Fall 2012 Issue.​

DENNIS' ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN RESEARCH

​WHITE PAPERS AND OTHER PERIODICALS:

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  1. 'Dynamic Fiscal Multipliers: Why Austerity Has Failed in the Euro Area', with Darren Williams, Alliance Bernstein White Paper, March 20, 2013.

  2. 'When “Risk-Free” Isn’t Risk Free: The Impact of a US Treasury Downgrade', with Ivan Rudolph-Shabinsky, Alliance Bernstein White Paper, June 7, 2011.

  3. 'Policymakers Need Broader Framework to Evaluate Prices and Prevent Bubbles', with Joseph Carson, Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: US, December 11, 2009.

​SELECT ECONOMIC PERIODICALS (co-authored with Darren Williams):

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  1. 'Greek Negotiations Continue Amid Cash Crunch', Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: Europe, April 10, 2015.

  2. 'A Constructive Outlook on Spain', Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: Europe, March 6, 2015.

  3. 'Rocky Road Ahead for Greece’s New Government', Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: Europe, February 6, 2015.

  4. 'Greek Risk Rises as Election Looms', Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: Europe, January 9, 2015.

  5. 'Structural Reforms: A Key Missing Link in the Euro Area', AB Economic Perspectives: Europe, November 21, 2014.

  6. 'Early Exit and Elections in Greece?', Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: Europe, October 17, 2014.

  7. 'A Reversal in Euro Area Rebalancing', Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: Europe, September 19, 2014.

  8. 'Portugal Can Surmount Espírito Santo Crisis', Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: Europe, August 8, 2014.

  9. 'Europe’s Fiscal Progress Faces Complacency Risk', AB Economic Perspectives: Europe, June 20, 2014.

  10. 'EU Elections: Radical Parties to Make Loud Headlines, Limited Impact', AB Economic: Europe, May 23, 2014.

  11. 'Will Belgium Avoid Post-Election Deadlock?', Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: Europe, May 9, 2014.

  12. 'Can Greece Exit Its Bailout?', Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: Europe, April 11, 2014.

  13. 'The Road to Portugal’s Bailout Exit', Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: Europe, March 28, 2014.

  14. 'Gauging Political Threats to Greece’s Recovery', AB Economic Perspectives: Europe, February 28, 2014.

  15. 'Ireland’s Bailout Exit: Hope or False Precedent', Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: Europe, November 22, 2013.

  16. 'Portugal: The Politics of Austerity', Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: Europe, October 11, 2013.

  17. 'Spain: A Recovery with Bumps Along the Way', Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: Europe, September 20, 2013.

BLOG ARTICLES:

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  1. 'Clock Will Be Ticking for Greece’s New Government', with Darren Williams, AB Blog, January 15, 2015.

  2. 'European QE Draws Attention to Irish Bonds', with John Taylor, AB Blog, December 17, 2014.

  3. 'Will New Greek Drama Threaten European Periphery?', with Darren Williams, AB Blog, October 20, 2014.

  4. 'New Dawn for Peripheral Europe?', with Darren Williams, AB Blog, May 7, 2014.

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