Publications | Dennis Shen
Image source: Washington Post at https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/05/15/americas-most-gerrymandered-congressional-districts/
Articles for the LSE, ECPR and OMFIF
PUBLICATIONS:
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'Britain’s triple squeeze: Labour, gilts and the Europe question', European Consortium for Political Research's The Loop, June 29, 2026.
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'Europe 2.0: a new political economy for the age of Trump and China', European Consortium for Political Research's The Loop, June 5, 2026.
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'A more fragmented global economy awaits after the Iran war', OMFIF, May 15, 2026.
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'A just peace settlement for Ukraine remains elusive', European Consortium for Political Research's The Loop, January 13, 2026.
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'Activating frozen Russian assets is the only viable option to fund Ukraine', OMFIF, November 12, 2025.
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'Activating frozen Russian assets is the only viable option for continuing to fund Ukraine', LSE European Politics and Policy, October 20, 2025.
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'The easing of fiscal rules raises long-term economic risks', LSE British Politics and Policy, November 15, 2024.
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'Georgian election results may challenge nation’s socio-political stability', European Consortium for Political Research's The Loop, October 29, 2024.
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'Africa needs innovative debt-relief solutions to avoid a lost decade', Africa at LSE Blog, August 6, 2024.
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'For the US government, debt-ceiling crises are both costly and avoidable.' LSE US Politics and Policy, March 16, 2023.
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'Sovereign ratings under pressure entering 2023', OMFIF, December 22, 2022.
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'Global economic recovery slows as risks bite in 2022', OMFIF, July 27, 2022.
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'How rating agencies could support African governments in overcoming debt crises', co-authored, Africa at LSE Blog, July 4, 2022.
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'Global economy set for sturdy if uneven growth in 2022', OMFIF, December 13, 2021.
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'Brexit remains far from over: the “slow burn” of EU-exit will stress the British economy long term', LSE Brexit Blog, January 19, 2021.
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'Why Isn’t There More Alarm About the Gerrymandering of US Presidencies?', LSE School of Public Policy Blog, November 29, 2019.
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'Outlook for Italy: Fiscal policy and instability in the government remain key sources of risk', LSE European Politics and Policy, June 27, 2019.
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'29 March: Brexit in name only or an Article 50 extension are on the cards​', LSE Brexit Blog, January 11, 2019.
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'Ultimately, public opinion is unlikely to tolerate a hard Brexit', LSE Brexit Blog, December 5, 2017.
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'A rise in narcissism could be one of the main causes of America’s political and economic crises', LSE US Politics and Policy (reposted on Newsweek; cited by RealClearScience), June 28, 2017.
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'The Only Way to Halt the Rise of Demagoguery May Be to Reform Globalization', LSE US Politics and Policy, February 16, 2017.
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'Central Banks Are Facing a Crisis of Confidence – It’s Time to Reinvent Global Monetary Policy', LSE European Politics and Policy (reposted on the Global Policy Journal Blog), October 6, 2016.
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'Recap: Why Brexit Still Faces Extraordinary Challenges', LSE British Politics and Policy, September 12, 2016.
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'Europe’s Recent Attacks Underline the Need for a New Strategy to Combat Terrorism', LSE European Politics and Policy, July 26, 2016.
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'The Cost of Wealth Inequality in Higher Education', LSE British Politics and Policy, September 9, 2013.
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'Book Review: Intelligent Governance for the 21st Century', LSE Review of Books, March 9, 2013.
JOURNAL PUBLICATIONS:
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'Capitalism, Corporatocracy and Financialization: Imbalances in the American Political Economy', The Public Sphere Journal, Fall 2012 Issue.​
Select Guest Commentaries
"Fed and BoE to Hold Fire as Markets Search for the Next Signal", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Jun 17, 2026
"ECB Set to Raise Rates as Inflation Risks Keep Door Open to Further Tightening", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Jun 10, 2026
"ECB, Bank of England Set to Hold Rates Unchanged Today", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Apr 30, 2026
"Hungary’s Euro Ambition Is a Long-term Bet Requiring Discipline, Credibility and Integration", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Apr 13, 2026
"A Divided Fed to Continue Favouring Easing Even as the Iran War Raises the Stakes", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Mar 18, 2026
"ECB Policy to Ultimately Be Determined by the Fallout from the Iran War", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Mar 16, 2026
"A Divided Federal Reserve Cuts 25bps as an Announcement of a New Fed Chair Looms", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Dec 12, 2025
"Global Economic Outlook 2026: Financial System Risk; Trade, Public Debt, Geopolitical Uncertainties", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Dec 09, 2025
"Delays in US Jobs Data Weaken the Quality of US Policymaking", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Nov 21, 2025
"What’s the Final Economic Impact of the Record US Government Shutdown?", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Nov 13, 2025
"What’s the Outlook for US-China Relations After the One-year Trading Truce?", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Oct 30, 2025
"What Should We Expect from This Week’s ECB Meeting?", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Oct 29, 2025
"What’s the Outlook for the Federal Reserve’s Interest-rate Policy?", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Oct 29, 2025
"EU’s Complex Plan to Unlock Frozen Russian Assets Is Vital for Financing Ukraine", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Oct 21, 2025
"Ukrainian Debt Sustainability Challenges Remain Heightened as New IMF Programme Talks Accelerate", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Sep 29, 2025
"Euro Area Inflation Pressures Balanced; Higher Long-end Yields a Concern", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Sep 18, 2025
"Federal Reserve Runs Risk of Loosening Before Inflation Is Contained", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Sep 17, 2025
"Five Reasons Why Trump’s Trade War Is Likely to Escalate", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Aug 13, 2025
"US-EU Trade Agreement Ensures Only Modest Blow to the Sluggish European Economy", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), July 29, 2025
"EU’s Sluggish Economy Faces Moderate Growth Slowdown from US Trade Tensions", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), July 24, 2025
"Navigating China’s Economic Challenges: A Q&A with Scope Ratings’ Dennis Shen", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), July 21, 2025
"Fragile Middle East Truce Heightens Geo-political, Macroeconomic Risks, Including for Europe", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Jun 27, 2025
"Global Economic Outlook: US, Europe Grow More Slowly Than Expected Amid Trade, Geopolitical Tensions", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Jun 20, 2025
"Bulgaria Poised to Join the Euro: An Interview with Scope Ratings’ Dennis Shen", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Jun 16, 2025
"Bulgaria on Track to Adopt the Euro, Supporting the Economic Outlook", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Jun 02, 2025
"US Trade Policy: Wide-ranging Tariff Increases Heighten Global Credit Risk", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Apr 10, 2025
"UK Economic Risks and Fiscal Pressures Intensify", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Apr 04, 2025
"The UK’s Sovereign Rating Remains Resilient, but Risks Are Rising", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Feb 20, 2025
"US: Clear-cut Trump Victory Raises Medium-term Economic Risks Despite Reduction of Near-term Political Uncertainty", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Nov 06, 2024
"UK: Budget Aims for Growth but Easing of Fiscal Rules Raises Economic Risks", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Nov 01, 2024
"Greece: Continued Debt Reduction Supports Favourable Credit Trajectory", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Oct 24, 2024
"Georgia: Parliamentary Elections Could Heighten Instability and Pressure Sovereign’s Ratings", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Oct 22, 2024
"Global Economic Outlook: A Resilient World Economy Faces US Election Test", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Oct 04, 2024
"UK: Labour Government Must Prioritise Pro-growth Policies Amid Limited Fiscal Space", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), July 05, 2024
"G7: Rising Debt Heightens Sovereign Risks Amid Election Uncertainty", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), July 04, 2024
"Global Economy: Soft Landing Reinforces Prospect of Higher-for-longer Interest Rates", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Jun 20, 2024
"South African Elections: Greater Governability Challenges Likely as ANC Loses Its Majority", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Jun 05, 2024
"Rising Debt, Gradual De-dollarisation Are Growing Risks for US Sovereign Rating", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Jun 04, 2024
"United Kingdom: Rising Debt a Key Long-term Rating Risk", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), May 22, 2024
"Middle East Crisis: Geopolitics Remains a Downside Risk for the Global Economic and Credit Outlook", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Apr 17, 2024
"Japan: Improved Inflation And Positive Effects For Debt Sustainability Underpin Stable Outlook", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Apr 10, 2024
"Georgia’s Credit Outlook Constrained By Geopolitical Sensitivities, Institutional Risks", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Mar 27, 2024
"Continued Debt Reduction And Structural Reforms Crucial For Greece’s Sovereign-rating Trajectory", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Mar 05, 2024
"Global Economic Outlook 2024: Soft Landing, Turn of The Global Rate Cycle Balance Fiscal and Geopolitical Risks", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Dec 15, 2023
"Poland: Pivotal Elections Bring a Pro-european Coalition Back to the Fore", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Oct 19, 2023
"Greece Q&A: Investment Grade Is an Exceptional Achievement but Multiple Challenges Remain", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Aug 17, 2023
"Why Scope Has Never Rated the US AAA", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Aug 02, 2023
"Poland: Institutional Deterioration and Legal Disputes With EU Weaken Credit Standing", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Jun 14, 2023
"Greece: First-round Election Result is Credit Positive, Reducing Policy Uncertainty", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), May 24, 2023
"Longer-run Risks From the Debt Ceiling Compromise US Credit Standing", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), May 15, 2023
"Ukraine Set for Foreign Debt Restructuring Next Year; Debt Forgiveness Likely Medium Term", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Apr 19, 2023
"Poland: Rule-of-law and Monetary-policy Weaknesses Challenge Ratings", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Apr 02, 2023
"South Africa: Governance Risk and Rising Debt Challenge Credit Ratings", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Mar 27, 2023
"Netherlands: Economy Resilient but Fiscal Deficit to Widen in the Medium Term", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Mar 01, 2023
"Greece: Positive Rating Outlook Yet Material Challenges Remain", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Feb 24, 2023
"Debt-ceiling Crisis a Key Risk to Credit Ratings of US Government", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Feb 21, 2023
"Georgia: Robust Economic Performance but Geopolitical Risks Challenge Outlook", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Feb 15, 2023
"High Debt Burden, Moderate Growth Potential Hinder Investment Grade for South Africa", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Nov 29, 2022
"Greece: Strong Growth, Reinforced ECB Support Bolster Ratings Outlook Despite High Inflation", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Aug 22, 2022
"Mid-Year Sovereign Outlook: Slowdown, Inflation, Rising Rates Create Divergent Rating Risks", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), July 19, 2022
"Ukraine: War-torn Economy to Shrink 40% in 2022; Daunting Financing, Reconstruction Task Ahead", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), May 24, 2022
"Turkey: Deterioration of Credit Profile, Unsustainable Governance Raise Likelihood of Deeper Crisis", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Apr 04, 2022
"Further Russian Conflict Escalation Could Pressure Ukraine Sovereign Credit Rating", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Feb 23, 2022
"Poland’s Rule-of-law Dispute With the EU Challenges Long-run Credit Outlook", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Feb 17, 2022
"Draghi’s Continued Premiership Prolongs Political Stability, but Risks Remain After 2023 Elections", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Jan 31, 2022
"Turkey Nears Tipping Point: Capital Controls, Use of Reserves Unlikely to Prevent Lira Depreciation", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Dec 08, 2021
"African Nations’ Shock Resistance, Debt Sustainability Varies Widely Despite Shared Vulnerabilities", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Dec 08, 2021
"Poland: row with the EU could have negative impact on outlooks for growth, public finances", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Nov 04, 2021
"Greece: High Government Debt, Sovereign-Bank Nexus, Weak Growth Potential Remain Economic Challenges", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Oct 07, 2021
"Debt Ceiling Crisis Serves as Reminder Why the United States No Longer Has a AAA Credit Rating", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq and FX Street ), Sep 28, 2021
"Poland: Minority PiS Government Restricts Capacity for Reform, Raises Early Election Risk", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Aug 25, 2021
"Italy: Strong Rebound is Underway; EU Funds to Help Raise Medium-Run Growth Potential", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Aug 12, 2021
"US Recovery Plan Will Support Recovery and Raise Long-Run Economic Growth Potential From 1.9%", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), July 27, 2021
"China’s Economic Outlook Stabilises as Beijing Addresses Financial Risks to Enhance Resilience", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq and FX Street ), July 18, 2021
"US: Debt Ceiling Deadline Highlights Risks to Sovereign Ratings, Need to Reform Fiscal Framework", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), July 14, 2021
"UK Outlook: Brexit Drag On Sovereign Rating Eases; Risks to City, Trade Balance Remain", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), June 30, 2021
"G7 Corporate Tax-reform Poses a Moderate Risk to Ireland’s High-growth Economic Model", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), June 27, 2021
"Ireland’s Debt Ratio Could Fall to Pre-covid Levels After 2026 on Deficit Reduction, Strong Growth", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), June 06, 2021
"Turkey: Political Interference At Central Bank, Weak Lira Risk Policy Mistakes Ahead Of Elections", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), June 03, 2021
"Italy: Fiscal Prudence Requires Attention Even as Draghi Investment Plan Critical to Reviving Growth", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Apr 28, 2021
"Turkey: Persistent Challenges in Monetary Governance Increase Risk to Macroeconomic Stability", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Mar 24, 2021
"Brexit: Preliminary Trade Deal avoids No-Deal, but “Slow Burn” of EU-Exit Costs Stresses British Economy", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Jan 10, 2021
"Turkey: Central Bank Decision Calms Investor Nerves, But a Sustained Policy Reorientation Needed", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Nov 23, 2020
"Governments, Creditors Need DSSI+ Debt Relief Framework to Tackle Africa’s Solvency Crisis", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Nov 17, 2020
"Italy’s Debt Sustainability Remains a Challenge, Despite Low Interest Costs and Pro-Growth Agenda", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Oct 27, 2020
"Coronavirus, Job Market and Brexit Stresses Darken the Outlook for the British Economic Recovery", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Sep 30, 2020
"Multilateral Fiscal Support for African Governments Addresses Liquidity More than Solvency Risk", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Sep 3, 2020
"Turkish Lira’s Plunge Throws Institutional, Economic Challenges Into Sharp Focus", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Aug 9, 2020
"Ireland: Covid-19 Crisis Weighs upon Growth and Fiscal Metrics, but Robust Recovery Expected", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), July 29, 2020
"Nordic Economies: Covid-19 Impairs 2020 Growth but Rising Public Debt Levels Still Manageable", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), June 25, 2020
"UK Faces Historic Dual Coronavirus, Brexit Challenges, Though Counterbalancing Economic Strengths Remain", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), June 15, 2020
"Italy’s Debt Sustainability Challenge is Increasing, Though ECB Support Mitigates Liquidity Risk", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), June 03, 2020
"Italy: Debt Sustainability Supported by ECB as Covid-19 Crisis Brings Rise in Debt and Funding Needs", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), May 12, 2020
"Covid-19 in Italy: What is the Budget Deficit, Sovereign Debt and Credit Rating Outlook?", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Mar 30, 2020
"Italy’s Economy Proves Extremely Vulnerable to Coronavirus Epidemic", FX Empire (also published on Yahoo Finance and FX Street ), Mar 10, 2020
Publications: Dennis Shen
Research for Scope
RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS:
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'Global Economic Outlook 2026: Increasing financial system risk; trade, sovereign debt and geopolitical uncertainties underscore negative global macro and credit outlook', 8 December 2025.
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'Global Economic Outlook Mid-Year 2025: Trade, geopolitical and sovereign-debt risks, alongside sustained high rates, weigh on the macro-economic outlook', 20 June 2025.
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'Global economic outlook: Soft economic landing but elevated steady-state rates underscore balanced economic risk for the global economy', 1 October 2024.
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'G7: rising debt heightens sovereign risks: Rising debt-to-GDP trajectories combine with higher-for-longer interest rates', 4 July 2024.
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'Why Morocco is emerging stronger than South Africa from recent crises: Growth, reform help explain divergent rating trajectories', co-authored, 24 January 2024.
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'Sovereign Outlook 2024: Soft economic landing and turn of the global rate cycle balance fiscal and geopolitical risks for sovereigns', co-authored, 15 December 2023.
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'Sovereign Mid-Year 2023 Outlook: Economic slowdown, challenging fiscal dynamics and high interest rates underpin negative outlook for sovereign ratings', co-authored, 18 July 2023.
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'Debt-ceiling crisis a core risk to credit ratings of US government', 17 February 2023.
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'Central and Eastern Europe Sovereign Outlook 2023: Growth falters amid war, higher cost of debt, energy security risk', co-authored, 15 December 2022.
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'Sovereign Outlook 2023: Sharp economic slowdown, challenging fiscal dynamics, high inflation and rising rates underpin divergence in sovereign ratings', co-authored, 12 December 2022.
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'July 2022 Central and Eastern Europe Mid-Year Sovereign Outlook', co-authored, 26 July 2022.
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'July 2022 Sovereign Mid-Year Outlook: Recovery slowdown, high inflation and rising rates present divergence in sovereign ratings and outlooks', co-authored, 18 July 2022.
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'2022 Central and Eastern Europe Sovereign Outlook: Sound albeit uneven growth ahead but risks to the region are mounting', co-authored, December 14, 2021.
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'2022 Sovereign Outlook: An uneven global recovery amid Covid-19, inflation and monetary tightening challenges sovereign outlook', co-authored, December 7, 2021.
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'2021 External Vulnerability and Resilience rankings: Risks for emerging economies amid rising inflation, rates', co-authored, November 8, 2021.
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'June 2021 Central and Eastern Europe Interim Sovereign Outlook: Sustained recovery to pre-crisis levels by 2022, but at varying speeds', co-authored, June 30, 2021.
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'June 2021 Interim Sovereign Outlook: A robust yet uneven global recovery continues, with diverging sovereign ratings implications', co-authored, June 17, 2021.
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'Nordic sovereigns: strong environmental policies support high credit ratings', co-authored, May 17, 2021.
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'Brexit trade agreement avoids no-deal, but disruptions and persistent uncertainty weaken UK outlook', January 7, 2021.
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'2021 Central and Eastern Europe Sovereign Outlook: The region’s economic recovery anchored by monetary, fiscal stimulus, but rising debt, external risks are concerns in some countries', co-authored, December 17, 2020.
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'2021 Sovereign Outlook: Recovery at last, with monetary and fiscal frameworks in transition, and diverging sovereign rating implications', co-authored, December 9, 2020.
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'Africa’s solvency crisis: China’s participation in G20 debt relief a sign of multilateralism, but a “DSSI+” framework is required', co-authored, November 16, 2020.
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'Q4 2020 Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Sovereign Update: CEE recovery from the Covid-19 crisis to be gradual and uneven amid significant virus resurgence in Q4', co-authored, October 19, 2020.
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'Q4 2020 Sovereign Update: A gradual and uneven global recovery faces challenges in Q4 2020 and 2021, with diverging sovereign ratings implications', co-authored, October 12, 2020.
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'African fiscal vulnerabilities, effects of 2020 global support initiatives and impact on sovereign creditworthiness', co-authored, September 3, 2020.
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'Q3 2020 Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Sovereign Update: Rebound has begun, but full recovery only after 2021', co-authored, July 15, 2020.
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'Q3 2020 Sovereign Update: Covid-19 pandemic’s economic impact: gradual and uneven global recovery with significant risks still on the horizon', co-authored, July 8, 2020.
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'Nordic economies: Covid-19 impairs 2020 growth but public debt levels manageable', co-authored, June 25, 2020.
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'Italy: debt sustainability hinges on ECB policy as Covid-19 crisis results in rise in debt and funding needs', co-authored, May 8, 2020.
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'Five charts to explain Turkey’s major external sector vulnerabilities in 2020', co-authored, May 5, 2020.
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'Q2 2020 Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Sovereign Update', co-authored, April 27, 2020.
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'2020 External Vulnerability and Resilience rankings for 63 countries: Covid-19 Crisis update', co-authored, April 21, 2020.
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'Q2 2020 Sovereign Update: Covid-19 pandemic’s economic impact: significant risk as the world economy falls into recession', co-authored, April 3, 2020.
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'Special Comment: Covid-19 Risks and Impact on the 2020 Global Outlook', March 13, 2020.
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'EU fiscal risk assessment: Italy, Spain, Greece rank among most fragile; Belgium, France vulnerable', co-authored, February 7, 2020.
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'Italy revisits fiscal reform: the tax-wedge challenge in five charts', co-authored, January 9, 2020.
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'CEE 2020 Sovereign Outlook: subdued regional growth trends amid greater economic resilience', co-authored with the Scope Public Finance team, December 10, 2019.
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'Sovereign Outlook 2020: slow growth, political uncertainty, rising debt add pressure on policymakers', co-authored with the Scope Public Finance team, December 2, 2019.
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'Q4 sovereign update: amid weak growth, policy focus shifts from central banks to governments', co-authored with the Scope Public Finance team, October 1, 2019.
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'Q3 sovereign update: monetary easing supports growth outlook, challenged by fiscal, trade policy', co-authored with the Scope Public Finance team, July 1, 2019.
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'Q2 Sovereign Update: Slower growth, political uncertainty mitigated by easier monetary policy', co-authored with the Scope Public Finance team, April 4, 2019.
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'Brexit: Uncertainty weighs on UK ratings, while risks to Ireland’s and the EU’s ratings more limited', co-authored, March 15, 2019.
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'Brexit Outlook: Chronic uncertainty to endure as UK teeters between soft Brexit and no Brexit', January 8, 2019.
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'External risk and trade wars: Scope presents dual frameworks to capture sovereign external risks', co-authored, December 13, 2018.
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'Sovereign Outlook 2019: Multiple stress factors set to weigh on growth and sovereign risk', co-authored with the Scope Public Finance team, November 29, 2018.
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'Q4 Sovereign Update: Three populist threats aggravating downside risks to outlook', co-authored with the Scope Public Finance team, October 8, 2018.
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'Scope expects UK to avoid no-deal Brexit, but high economic uncertainty underscores Negative Outlook', August 27, 2018.
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'Quarterly Update: Outlook for euro area remains constructive, despite growing protectionism risk', co-authored with the Scope Public Finance team, July 2, 2018.
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'Risks abound for the overheated Nordic housing market, but no crisis', co-authored, April 26, 2018.
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'Quarterly Update: Five Risks to the European and Global Outlook', co-authored with the Scope Public Finance team, April 12, 2018.
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'Scope welcomes European Commission’s Action Plan on sustainable finance', co-authored, March 22, 2018.
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'Prolonged Brexit uncertainty leaves the UK facing more sluggish economic growth', March 20, 2018.
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'Election Risk to Reforms Clouds Italian Sovereign Outlook', co-authored, February 5, 2018.
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'Four reasons why Russia is investment grade and Turkey is not', co-authored, January 19, 2018.
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'Special comment: Risks to Brexit trade talks pronounced as UK, EU approach next phase', December 15, 2017.
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'Public Finance Outlook 2018: Europe is resilient but global risks are rising', co-authored with the Scope Public Finance team, November 23, 2017.
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'Special comment: China’s sovereign ratings hinge on deleveraging initiatives', November 15, 2017.
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'Special comment: Catalonia to remain in Spain despite referendum, but tensions escalate', co-authored, October 6, 2017.
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'Special comment: Merkel’s government to push ahead, despite weakened authority', co-authored, September 27, 2017.
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'Special comment – German elections: low risk event but important for reform prospects in Europe', co-authored, September 12, 2017.
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'Special comment: Uncertainties around Brexit challenge UK credit outlook', co-authored, August 24, 2017.
Select research for Alliance Bernstein
​WHITE PAPERS:
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'Dynamic Fiscal Multipliers: Why Austerity Has Failed in the Euro Area', with Darren Williams, Alliance Bernstein White Paper, March 20, 2013.
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'When “Risk-Free” Isn’t Risk Free: The Impact of a US Treasury Downgrade', with Ivan Rudolph-Shabinsky, Alliance Bernstein White Paper, June 7, 2011.
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'Policymakers Need Broader Framework to Evaluate Prices and Prevent Bubbles', with Joseph Carson, Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: US, December 11, 2009.
​SELECT ECONOMIC PERIODICALS (co-authored alongside Darren Williams):
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'Greek Negotiations Continue Amid Cash Crunch', Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: Europe, April 10, 2015.
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'A Constructive Outlook on Spain', Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: Europe, March 6, 2015.
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'Rocky Road Ahead for Greece’s New Government', Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: Europe, February 6, 2015.
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'Greek Risk Rises as Election Looms', Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: Europe, January 9, 2015.
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'Structural Reforms: A Key Missing Link in the Euro Area', AB Economic Perspectives: Europe, November 21, 2014.
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'Early Exit and Elections in Greece?', Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: Europe, October 17, 2014.
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'A Reversal in Euro Area Rebalancing', Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: Europe, September 19, 2014.
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'Portugal Can Surmount Espírito Santo Crisis', Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: Europe, August 8, 2014.
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'Europe’s Fiscal Progress Faces Complacency Risk', AB Economic Perspectives: Europe, June 20, 2014.
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'EU Elections: Radical Parties to Make Loud Headlines, Limited Impact', AB Economic: Europe, May 23, 2014.
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'Will Belgium Avoid Post-Election Deadlock?', Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: Europe, May 9, 2014.
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'Can Greece Exit Its Bailout?', Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: Europe, April 11, 2014.
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'The Road to Portugal’s Bailout Exit', Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: Europe, March 28, 2014.
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'Gauging Political Threats to Greece’s Recovery', AB Economic Perspectives: Europe, February 28, 2014.
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'Ireland’s Bailout Exit: Hope or False Precedent', Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: Europe, November 22, 2013.
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'Portugal: The Politics of Austerity', Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: Europe, October 11, 2013.
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'Spain: A Recovery with Bumps Along the Way', Alliance Bernstein Economic Perspectives: Europe, September 20, 2013.
BLOGS:
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'Clock Will Be Ticking for Greece’s New Government', with Darren Williams, AB Blog, January 15, 2015.
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'European QE Draws Attention to Irish Bonds', with John Taylor, AB Blog, December 17, 2014.
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'Will New Greek Drama Threaten European Periphery?', with Darren Williams, AB Blog, October 20, 2014.
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'New Dawn for Peripheral Europe?', with Darren Williams, AB Blog, May 7, 2014.
Conference Presentations
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‘Where is the global economy headed amid global tariff uncertainty?’, Scope Ratings webinar, May 2025.
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‘Trump 2.0 and the outlook for sovereign, bank and corporate credit’, Scope Ratings webinar, December 2024.
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‘Hamburg Sustainability Conference’, Legislative Measures for Successful Sovereign Debt Restructuring Roundtable, moderated by Jubilee Germany, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung and the Friedrich-Naumann-Stiftung, 8 October 2024.
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‘The Future of Banking Forum’, The Financial (Georgia), 10 May 2023.
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‘"No more too little, too late" – For a sustainable solution to the global debt crisis’ (video), Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung and Jubilee Germany, 7 February 2023.
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‘New conditions for a new year: are inflation, recession, default risks fading?’, Scope Ratings webinar, January 2023.
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‘Africa’s solvency crisis: China’s participation in G20 debt relief a sign of multilateralism, but a “DSSI+” framework is required’, Jubilee Germany annual meeting 2022, Göttingen, October 2022.
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‘Scope Ratings GmbH – Africa Initiative’, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, AFD, African Union, African Peer Review Mechanism Experts Group Meeting on Sovereign Ratings, Addis Ababa, October 2022.
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‘Global economy in slowdown: inflation, war, Europe’s energy crisis darken the outlook’, Scope Ratings webinar, July 2022.
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‘Africa’s solvency crisis: China’s participation in G20 debt relief a sign of multilateralism, but a “DSSI+” framework is required’, EUI Florence School of Banking and Finance DebtCon5, Florence, May 2022.
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‘Expert Discussion: Impending Collapse or Sustainable Transformation?’, erlassjahr.de G7 panel, Bonn, May 2022.
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‘War, sanctions, energy crisis – assessing the impacts on Europe’, Scope Ratings webinar, March 2022.
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‘The macroeconomic outlook and market implications for Asia in 2022’, OMFIF digital panel, December 2021.
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‘Brexit: what’s next and the UK sovereign outlook’, Scope Ratings Analyst Conference Call, Frankfurt, October 2019.
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‘Italy’s sovereign rating outlook’, Scope Ratings Analyst Conference Call, Frankfurt, April 2019.
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‘Roundtable: ESG in Credit Risk and Ratings’, Roundtable at the European Commission, Brussels, July 2018.
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‘Public Finance Outlook 2018’, Scope Ratings Analyst Conference Call, Frankfurt, November 2017.
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‘Uncertainties around Brexit challenge UK credit outlook’, Scope Ratings Analyst Conference Call, Frankfurt, August 2017.
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‘A Fundamental Perspective on “Fair Value” in Sovereign Bond Markets’, Alliance Bernstein Global Economic Roundtables, New York, November 2013.
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‘Austerity and Growth: A Dynamic Relationship’, Princeton and LSE Joint Conference, Princeton University, March 2013.
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‘Fiscal Crises: Growth vs. Austerity Revisited’, AB Global Economic Roundtables, New York, December 2012.
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‘Re-Thinking the Global Economic System: Building an Inclusive and Sustainable Architecture for All’, Global Public Policy Network Students’ Conference 2012, National University of Singapore, December 2012.
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‘Capitalism, Corporatocracy and Financialization: Imbalances in the American Political Economy’, LSE and Princeton Joint Conference, London School of Economics, March 2012.